Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 49.5% vs Dowd 50.7% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 81.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 95.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.1%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Hayes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Hayes
Dowd
Last 10: Hayes 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
6
0
Hayes
Dowd
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Hayes
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (557)
55.2% (625)
-6.7%
Power Play
53.3% (107)
57.1% (7)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
38.2% (220)
+20.1%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hayes is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (237).
Hayes shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Hayes
Dowd
Home
50.8% (313)
53.7% (445)
Away
48.2% (363)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Hayes
Dowd
P1
52.3%
48.8%
P2
47.7%
49.3%
P3
48.4%
54.0%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.9%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 07:44 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 3 | 11:01 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 03:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 01:40 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 16:14 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 11:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |