Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Roy 51.9% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 58.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 65.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.3%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Dowd
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dowd
Roy
Last 5: Dowd 2-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Dowd
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Dowd
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
51.9% (547)
-0.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
54.1% (37)
-54.1%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
53.3% (92)
-11.7%
On power play, Roy has a +54.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Dowd shoots right. Roy is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Home / Away
Dowd
Roy
Home
48.6% (451)
54.0% (328)
Away
49.5% (416)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Dowd
Roy
P1
49.1%
53.5%
P2
47.3%
51.6%
P3
51.4%
51.6%
Final 5 min
52.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:00 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:53 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:22 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |