Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Roy 48.4% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 88.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 52.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 55.2%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Dowd
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Dowd
Roy
Last 10: Dowd 3-7 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
5
Dowd
Roy
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dowd
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
1
Dowd
Roy
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
48.7% (3,719)
+3.7%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
49.5% (283)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
45.5% (477)
-1.4%
On power play, Dowd has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Home / Away
Dowd
Roy
Home
51.9% (3,897)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Dowd
Roy
P1
51.7%
50.8%
P2
50.4%
46.3%
P3
50.3%
48.1%
OT
45.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:00 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:53 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:22 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:12 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:16 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 02:04 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 3 | 09:03 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 3 | 08:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |