Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Hartman 45.3% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 27-15 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 75.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 91.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 91.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Dowd
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
15
(42 meetings)
27
15
Dowd
Hartman
Last 10: Dowd 7-3 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
4
8
Dowd
Hartman
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
12
2
Dowd
Hartman
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
11
5
Dowd
Hartman
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
45.2% (4,235)
+7.2%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
47.4% (443)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
42.4% (262)
+1.7%
On power play, Dowd has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Hartman is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,381).
Home / Away
Dowd
Hartman
Home
51.9% (3,897)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
43.6% (2,351)
By Period
Dowd
Hartman
P1
51.7%
46.0%
P2
50.4%
42.9%
P3
50.3%
46.8%
OT
45.9%
53.8%
Final 5 min
50.5%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 16:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 12:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:46 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 03:35 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 19, 2023 | 2 | 05:34 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 13:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:30 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |