Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Steel 50.6% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 70.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.1%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Dowd
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dowd
Steel
Last 5: Dowd 2-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
3
Dowd
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
52.5% (200)
-0.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
71.4% (7)
-71.4%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
40.0% (45)
+1.6%
On power play, Steel has a +71.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Steel is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Dowd
Steel
Home
48.6% (451)
49.5% (109)
Away
49.5% (416)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Dowd
Steel
P1
49.1%
49.5%
P2
47.3%
47.5%
P3
51.4%
56.6%
OT
30.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |