Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 50.2%). Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Steel 50.2% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 92.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.3%
Neutral zone
Steel 51.7%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 61.6%
38.4%
61.6%
Dowd
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Dowd
Steel
Last 7: Dowd 3-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
3
Dowd
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Steel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
50.6% (2,876)
+1.8%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
62.6% (179)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
37.4% (254)
+6.7%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Dowd shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Dowd
Steel
Home
51.9% (3,897)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Dowd
Steel
P1
51.7%
51.9%
P2
50.4%
49.5%
P3
50.3%
49.6%
OT
45.9%
41.9%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:35 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |