Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dowd wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 53.3% vs Aho 52.2% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 85.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.3%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Dowd
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dowd
Aho
Last 6: Dowd 3-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Dowd
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (771)
51.6% (819)
+3.8%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
58.4% (173)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (165)
46.3% (67)
-0.8%
On even strength, Dowd has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Dowd shoots right. Aho is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Dowd
Aho
Home
58.2% (462)
53.9% (568)
Away
49.3% (481)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Dowd
Aho
P1
55.6%
55.4%
P2
50.5%
51.2%
P3
53.9%
50.9%
OT
75.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
53.1%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 02:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 2 | 19:15 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 1 | 08:38 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |