Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Aho 54.9% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 97.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 59.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 66.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Dowd
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Dowd
Aho
Last 10: Dowd 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
5
Dowd
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
0
Dowd
Aho
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
1
Dowd
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
54.5% (870)
-2.3%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
62.4% (266)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
37.1% (62)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Dowd shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Dowd
Aho
Home
51.5% (619)
53.9% (603)
Away
48.1% (576)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Dowd
Aho
P1
51.7%
54.1%
P2
51.6%
55.0%
P3
47.0%
57.4%
OT
22.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.1%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:23 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 08:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 19:28 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |