Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Aho 50.0% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 84.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Dowd
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Dowd
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Dowd
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
49.9% (851)
+1.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
53.5% (144)
-53.5%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
43.3% (60)
-1.7%
On power play, Aho has a +53.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Dowd
Aho
Home
48.6% (451)
53.2% (554)
Away
49.5% (416)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Dowd
Aho
P1
49.1%
49.1%
P2
47.3%
50.8%
P3
51.4%
49.7%
OT
30.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
52.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:38 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |