Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.8% vs 51.4%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Aho 51.2% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 94.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 68.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 78.7%
21.3%
78.7%
Dowd
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Dowd
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Dowd
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (625)
48.5% (778)
+6.7%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
63.4% (191)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (220)
50.8% (65)
-12.6%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Dowd shoots right. Aho is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Dowd
Aho
Home
53.7% (445)
51.3% (530)
Away
47.7% (407)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Dowd
Aho
P1
48.8%
50.0%
P2
49.3%
51.3%
P3
54.0%
52.1%
OT
44.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.8%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2022 | OT | 02:09 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 1 | 11:38 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |