Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 93.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 65.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Dowd
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dowd
Stamkos
Last 5: Dowd 3-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Dowd
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
56.1% (342)
-4.4%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
53.3% (92)
-53.3%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
62.5% (8)
-20.9%
On power play, Stamkos has a +53.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Dowd shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Dowd
Stamkos
Home
48.6% (451)
53.4% (208)
Away
49.5% (416)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Dowd
Stamkos
P1
49.1%
55.6%
P2
47.3%
52.8%
P3
51.4%
59.1%
OT
30.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
52.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |