Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.2% vs Stamkos 54.4% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 91.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 58.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Dowd
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dowd
Stamkos
Last 5: Dowd 3-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Dowd
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (640)
55.8% (339)
-3.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
53.3% (90)
-53.3%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
62.5% (8)
-20.9%
On power play, Stamkos has a +53.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Dowd is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (319).
Dowd shoots right. Stamkos is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Home / Away
Dowd
Stamkos
Home
48.6% (451)
53.4% (208)
Away
49.8% (412)
57.2% (229)
By Period
Dowd
Stamkos
P1
48.9%
55.3%
P2
47.6%
52.5%
P3
51.6%
58.9%
OT
30.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
52.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
56.0%▲
48.5%
49.1%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |