Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 51.0%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 18-15 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 95.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 59.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 55.3%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Dowd
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
15
(33 meetings)
18
15
Dowd
Stamkos
Last 10: Dowd 7-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
8
Dowd
Stamkos
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
12
2
Dowd
Stamkos
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
5
Dowd
Stamkos
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
50.4% (9,799)
+2.0%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
55.1% (1,725)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
49.7% (825)
-5.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Dowd
Stamkos
Home
51.9% (3,897)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Dowd
Stamkos
P1
51.7%
49.1%
P2
50.4%
52.7%
P3
50.3%
50.9%
OT
45.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:28 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 03:32 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 07:23 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 2 | 13:32 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |