Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Dowd wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 53.3% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 80.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Dowd
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Dowd
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Dowd
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (771)
49.3% (789)
+6.1%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
56.9% (181)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (165)
54.1% (98)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Dowd shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Dowd
Stamkos
Home
58.2% (462)
52.0% (512)
Away
49.3% (481)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Dowd
Stamkos
P1
55.6%
42.1%
P2
50.5%
56.4%
P3
53.9%
53.7%
OT
75.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
53.1%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |