Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Gourde 49.7% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 90.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 73.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Dowd
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Dowd
Gourde
Last 5: Dowd 5-0 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
0
Dowd
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (625)
49.1% (847)
+6.1%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
79.5% (44)
-22.4%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (220)
39.5% (81)
-1.3%
On power play, Gourde has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Dowd shoots right. Gourde is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Dowd
Gourde
Home
53.7% (445)
50.1% (491)
Away
47.7% (407)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Dowd
Gourde
P1
48.8%
54.7%
P2
49.3%
45.0%
P3
54.0%
49.4%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 07:08 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 16:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |