Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.1% vs 47.8%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Gourde 48.0% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 88.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 70.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Dowd
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Dowd
Gourde
Last 5: Dowd 4-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
48.0% (914)
+1.2%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
54.2% (48)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
43.9% (123)
+0.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Dowd shoots right. Gourde is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Dowd
Gourde
Home
46.3% (492)
50.2% (512)
Away
49.8% (532)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Dowd
Gourde
P1
49.1%
50.0%
P2
48.2%
45.3%
P3
46.9%
48.6%
OT
71.4%
20.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 10:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:09 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 08:50 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |