Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Gourde 46.0% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 63.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.4%
Neutral zone
Gourde 54.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Dowd
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Dowd
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Dowd
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
47.2% (654)
+4.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
45.0% (20)
-45.0%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
32.2% (87)
+9.4%
On power play, Gourde has a +45.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Gourde is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Dowd
Gourde
Home
48.6% (451)
44.1% (322)
Away
49.5% (416)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Dowd
Gourde
P1
49.1%
42.4%
P2
47.3%
49.8%
P3
51.4%
44.3%
OT
30.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |