Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 68.5%
Defensive zone
Hayes 58.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 75.2%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Hayes
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Hayes
Bjugstad
Last 5: Hayes 4-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
0
Hayes
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Hayes
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
46.7% (398)
+4.9%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
51.6% (31)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
62.5% (8)
-2.5%
On even strength, Hayes has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Hayes is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Hayes shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Hayes
Bjugstad
Home
50.5% (200)
47.3% (220)
Away
53.4% (253)
47.5% (217)
By Period
Hayes
Bjugstad
P1
58.8%
46.1%
P2
49.3%
46.3%
P3
48.0%
50.4%
Final 5 min
56.9%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:23 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:15 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 14:30 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |