Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.8% vs 48.0%). Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Bjugstad wins 41.3% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.0% vs Roy 48.3% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 53.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 50.0%
Neutral zone
Roy 52.7%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Bjugstad
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Bjugstad
Roy
Last 10: Bjugstad 6-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
3
Bjugstad
Roy
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
8
1
Bjugstad
Roy
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (867)
48.3% (633)
+1.1%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
52.1% (48)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (216)
43.7% (87)
-3.0%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Bjugstad is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (312).
Bjugstad shoots right. Roy is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (218).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Roy
Home
46.5% (480)
50.8% (376)
Away
48.9% (628)
45.4% (392)
By Period
Bjugstad
Roy
P1
48.7%
53.8%
P2
45.6%
43.5%
P3
49.1%
46.4%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
45.0%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 02:18 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:57 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 18:03 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 3 | 15:52 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:00 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 19:28 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 15:03 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |