Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.9% vs 48.4%). Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Bjugstad wins 45.3% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.9% vs Roy 48.4% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 17-14 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 62.0%
Defensive zone
Roy 56.6%
Neutral zone
Roy 52.2%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Bjugstad
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
17
(31 meetings)
14
17
Bjugstad
Roy
Last 10: Bjugstad 3-7 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
7
Bjugstad
Roy
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Bjugstad
Roy
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
10
7
Bjugstad
Roy
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,634)
48.7% (3,719)
-0.1%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
49.5% (283)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
45.5% (477)
-1.2%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Bjugstad is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,330).
Bjugstad shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Roy
Home
49.8% (4,020)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
48.1% (4,057)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Bjugstad
Roy
P1
49.0%
50.8%
P2
49.1%
46.3%
P3
48.4%
48.1%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 05:26 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 10:01 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 17:09 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 06:01 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 02:18 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:57 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 18:03 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 3 | 15:52 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:00 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |