Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.3% vs Roy 47.2% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 55.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 58.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 54.8%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Bjugstad
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Bjugstad
Roy
Last 9: Bjugstad 3-6 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Bjugstad
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bjugstad
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Bjugstad
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (906)
47.5% (617)
+3.2%
Power Play
48.1% (108)
39.6% (53)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (239)
46.4% (97)
-2.0%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Bjugstad is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Bjugstad shoots right. Roy is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (174).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Roy
Home
49.8% (643)
47.2% (398)
Away
48.7% (610)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Bjugstad
Roy
P1
49.4%
48.6%
P2
50.5%
48.8%
P3
47.9%
43.9%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 10:01 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 17:09 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 06:01 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |