Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.9% vs Cates 43.2% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 64.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 60.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.6%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Bjugstad
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Bjugstad
Cates
Last 10: Bjugstad 4-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bjugstad
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Bjugstad
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
3
Bjugstad
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,634)
44.1% (2,742)
+4.5%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
43.0% (242)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
34.9% (373)
+9.4%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Bjugstad shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Cates
Home
49.8% (4,020)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
48.1% (4,057)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Bjugstad
Cates
P1
49.0%
44.5%
P2
49.1%
43.5%
P3
48.4%
41.2%
OT
61.3%
29.4%
Final 5 min
47.3%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 03:10 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 16:52 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 10:55 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 03:31 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |