Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.0% vs Cates 40.4% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 62.3%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 56.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Bjugstad
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bjugstad
Cates
Last 5: Bjugstad 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Bjugstad
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Bjugstad
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (867)
40.4% (841)
+9.0%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
42.4% (66)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (216)
32.7% (147)
+8.0%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Bjugstad shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Cates
Home
46.5% (480)
38.2% (566)
Away
48.9% (628)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Bjugstad
Cates
P1
48.7%
40.5%
P2
45.6%
42.4%
P3
49.1%
35.3%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
45.0%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 10:55 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 03:31 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |