Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 47.9% vs Cates 45.1% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 63.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 63.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 59.5%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Bjugstad
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bjugstad
Cates
Last 5: Bjugstad 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Bjugstad
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (398)
46.7% (912)
+0.0%
Power Play
51.6% (31)
33.9% (56)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
35.0% (137)
+27.5%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +27.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Bjugstad shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Cates
Home
47.3% (220)
46.1% (521)
Away
47.5% (217)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Bjugstad
Cates
P1
46.1%
48.0%
P2
46.3%
42.3%
P3
50.4%
44.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 03:10 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 16:52 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |