Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bjugstad wins 41.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.0% vs Johansen 58.2% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 82.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 75.0%
Neutral zone
Johansen 50.5%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Bjugstad
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Bjugstad
Johansen
Last 8: Bjugstad 4-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bjugstad
Johansen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
2
Bjugstad
Johansen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (867)
59.8% (625)
-10.4%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
58.2% (196)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (216)
51.9% (27)
-11.2%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Bjugstad is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (312).
Bjugstad shoots right. Johansen is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Johansen
Home
46.5% (480)
60.3% (436)
Away
48.9% (628)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Bjugstad
Johansen
P1
48.7%
61.3%
P2
45.6%
60.4%
P3
49.1%
56.0%
OT
50.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
45.0%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2023 | 3 | 00:35 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 13, 2023 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 13, 2023 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 08:31 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 17:54 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 02:08 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |