Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.3% vs Johansen 52.8% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 84.4%
Defensive zone
Johansen 60.0%
Neutral zone
Johansen 65.5%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Bjugstad
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Bjugstad
Johansen
Last 6: Bjugstad 5-1 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
3
0
Bjugstad
Johansen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (906)
51.9% (597)
-1.2%
Power Play
48.1% (108)
57.9% (133)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (239)
54.3% (81)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Bjugstad is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Bjugstad shoots right. Johansen is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Johansen
Home
49.8% (643)
55.8% (387)
Away
48.7% (610)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Bjugstad
Johansen
P1
49.4%
50.0%
P2
50.5%
56.2%
P3
47.9%
52.6%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:45 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:32 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 07:04 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:48 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 07:45 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |