Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 49.7%). Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Foligno 49.8% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 73.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 66.5%
Neutral zone
Foligno 55.6%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Dowd
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Dowd
Foligno
Last 6: Dowd 4-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Foligno
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
49.0% (261)
+2.7%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
57.1% (42)
-57.1%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
47.1% (51)
-5.5%
On power play, Foligno has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Foligno is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Dowd
Foligno
Home
48.6% (451)
48.9% (178)
Away
49.5% (416)
50.6% (176)
By Period
Dowd
Foligno
P1
49.1%
40.4%
P2
47.3%
55.8%
P3
51.4%
51.2%
OT
30.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.1%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 15:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |