Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Cates 45.1% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 76.9%
Defensive zone
Foligno 65.2%
Neutral zone
Foligno 60.7%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
Foligno
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Foligno
Cates
Last 7: Foligno 5-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Foligno
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
0
Foligno
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
3
1
Foligno
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (495)
46.7% (912)
+2.0%
Power Play
56.9% (65)
33.9% (56)
+23.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (144)
35.0% (137)
+8.8%
On power play, Foligno has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Foligno is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Foligno shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Foligno
Cates
Home
49.6% (359)
46.1% (521)
Away
47.2% (345)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Foligno
Cates
P1
46.7%
48.0%
P2
52.7%
42.3%
P3
46.7%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
31.3%
Final 5 min
55.8%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:34 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:27 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:42 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |