Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Foligno wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.8% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 67.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 78.7%
21.3%
78.7%
Foligno
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Foligno
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (261)
55.4% (826)
-6.4%
Power Play
57.1% (42)
57.9% (221)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (51)
50.4% (129)
-3.3%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Foligno shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Foligno
O'Reilly
Home
48.9% (178)
55.8% (579)
Away
50.6% (176)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Foligno
O'Reilly
P1
40.4%
57.7%
P2
55.8%
54.8%
P3
51.2%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |