Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 18-8 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 83.4%
Defensive zone
Foligno 90.3%
Neutral zone
Foligno 83.1%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Foligno
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
18
(26 meetings)
8
18
Foligno
O'Reilly
Last 10: Foligno 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
11
Foligno
O'Reilly
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
4
1
Foligno
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
6
Foligno
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (495)
56.2% (983)
-7.5%
Power Play
56.9% (65)
55.5% (254)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (144)
52.0% (102)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Foligno is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Foligno shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Foligno
O'Reilly
Home
49.6% (359)
56.2% (697)
Away
47.2% (345)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Foligno
O'Reilly
P1
46.7%
54.5%
P2
52.7%
55.5%
P3
46.7%
57.1%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 14:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OT | 04:26 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |