Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Foligno wins 56.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 52.0% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 62.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 60.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Foligno
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Foligno
O'Reilly
Last 7: Foligno 4-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
1
Foligno
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Foligno
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (249)
55.0% (1,084)
-1.6%
Power Play
53.2% (154)
56.8% (303)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
40.3% (149)
+0.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Foligno is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Foligno shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Foligno
O'Reilly
Home
57.3% (225)
54.8% (759)
Away
47.1% (210)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Foligno
O'Reilly
P1
53.0%
55.3%
P2
51.8%
51.9%
P3
52.6%
54.2%
Final 5 min
53.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.4%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 15:53 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 19:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 10:38 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |