Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarvis on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Foligno wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Jarvis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Jarvis 42.6% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 55.6%
Defensive zone
Jarvis 58.3%
Neutral zone
Jarvis 55.6%
Result
Seth Jarvis favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Foligno
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Foligno
Jarvis
Last 7: Foligno 3-4 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Jarvis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
1
3
Foligno
Jarvis
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,810)
42.0% (352)
+6.3%
Power Play
52.3% (730)
43.7% (119)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (455)
38.2% (157)
+5.8%
On power play, Foligno has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Foligno is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,501).
Foligno shoots left. Jarvis is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Foligno
Jarvis
Home
49.9% (2,013)
43.8% (336)
Away
47.2% (1,984)
38.7% (292)
By Period
Foligno
Jarvis
P1
47.6%
39.7%
P2
50.4%
39.5%
P3
48.3%
46.1%
OT
29.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.3%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:18 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:09 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:19 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |