Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarvis on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 52.0% vs Jarvis 45.8% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 72.0%
Defensive zone
Jarvis 85.3%
Neutral zone
Jarvis 56.4%
Result
Seth Jarvis favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Foligno
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Foligno
Jarvis
Last 7: Foligno 3-4 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Jarvis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
1
3
Foligno
Jarvis
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (249)
46.2% (171)
+7.2%
Power Play
53.2% (154)
51.9% (54)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
39.4% (127)
+1.2%
On even strength, Foligno has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Foligno is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Foligno shoots left. Jarvis is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Foligno
Jarvis
Home
57.3% (225)
46.1% (204)
Away
47.1% (210)
42.6% (148)
By Period
Foligno
Jarvis
P1
53.0%
42.5%
P2
51.8%
42.9%
P3
52.6%
48.7%
Final 5 min
53.3%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
52.4%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:18 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:09 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:19 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |