Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Paul 53.4% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 84.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 57.4%
Neutral zone
Paul 68.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 67.8%
32.2%
67.8%
Lowry
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Lowry
Paul
Last 8: Lowry 6-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
4
1
Lowry
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
53.8% (753)
-1.1%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
58.9% (90)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
47.4% (78)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Lowry
Paul
Home
52.4% (597)
54.2% (450)
Away
48.4% (583)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Lowry
Paul
P1
48.5%
58.2%
P2
52.2%
50.6%
P3
50.5%
52.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 1 | 10:15 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 1 | 06:07 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 01:35 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |