Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lundell wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundell 51.6% vs Paul 53.3% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 60.9%
Defensive zone
Lundell 50.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 55.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Lundell
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lundell
Paul
Last 5: Lundell 3-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundell
1
0
Lundell
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Lundell
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundell
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (786)
53.2% (327)
-0.5%
Power Play
52.6% (152)
61.4% (57)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (182)
50.0% (32)
-2.7%
On power play, Paul has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lundell is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Lundell shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Lundell
Paul
Home
51.0% (574)
54.6% (183)
Away
52.6% (546)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Lundell
Paul
P1
52.9%
56.3%
P2
55.8%
54.8%
P3
47.1%
52.4%
OT
46.2%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.8%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundell
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:27 | Offensive | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Neutral | Anton Lundell |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Anton Lundell |