Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 45.7% vs Paul 50.4% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 86.3%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 55.1%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 72.7%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Mittelstadt
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Mittelstadt
Paul
Last 6: Mittelstadt 1-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Mittelstadt
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Mittelstadt
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Mittelstadt
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (351)
53.0% (644)
-7.1%
Power Play
47.3% (74)
37.5% (24)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (27)
42.9% (177)
-20.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Mittelstadt is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (274).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Paul
Home
47.2% (193)
52.5% (516)
Away
42.9% (259)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Paul
P1
49.0%
47.6%
P2
45.7%
48.4%
P3
38.8%
54.5%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
41.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
44.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 08:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 14:38 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:15 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 1 | 19:39 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |