Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Mittelstadt wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 47.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 73.5%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 74.5%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 73.9%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Mittelstadt
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Mittelstadt
Paul
Last 5: Mittelstadt 1-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Mittelstadt
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Mittelstadt
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (935)
53.1% (710)
-6.7%
Power Play
50.3% (173)
57.3% (199)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
58.0% (69)
-8.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Paul
Home
47.7% (583)
56.0% (466)
Away
46.4% (541)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Paul
P1
50.0%
57.2%
P2
46.2%
54.9%
P3
45.5%
51.5%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Nick Paul |