Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 45.6% vs Paul 52.1% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 17-7 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 90.6%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 82.6%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 87.1%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 87.1%
87.1%
12.9%
Mittelstadt
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
17
(24 meetings)
7
17
Mittelstadt
Paul
Last 10: Mittelstadt 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Mittelstadt
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
4
Mittelstadt
Paul
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
9
Mittelstadt
Paul
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (3,911)
52.5% (3,746)
-7.5%
Power Play
49.8% (660)
56.1% (469)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (96)
46.8% (571)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Mittelstadt is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,769).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,017).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Paul
Home
46.8% (2,314)
52.6% (2,384)
Away
44.4% (2,353)
51.7% (2,403)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Paul
P1
46.7%
53.8%
P2
46.2%
51.1%
P3
44.0%
51.9%
OT
38.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
43.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
48.0%▼
53.0%
45.6%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 11:35 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 18:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:40 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 08:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |