Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). McMichael wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.3% vs Paul 52.2% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
McMichael leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 63.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 79.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 74.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 74.2%
25.8%
74.2%
McMichael
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
9
(20 meetings)
11
9
McMichael
Paul
Last 10: McMichael 3-7 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McMichael
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
4
3
McMichael
Paul
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
5
4
McMichael
Paul
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (1,574)
52.5% (3,796)
-9.4%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
56.5% (480)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (167)
46.7% (574)
-8.4%
On power play, Paul has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McMichael is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
McMichael shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
McMichael
Paul
Home
42.6% (976)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
43.3% (904)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
McMichael
Paul
P1
43.3%
53.9%
P2
43.2%
51.0%
P3
41.9%
52.0%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.8%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 05:21 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 14:02 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 12:26 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 19:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |