Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Luostarinen wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Luostarinen 43.4% vs Paul 53.4% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Luostarinen 72.9%
Defensive zone
Luostarinen 74.0%
Neutral zone
Luostarinen 73.4%
Result
Eetu Luostarinen favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Luostarinen
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Luostarinen
Paul
Last 8: Luostarinen 2-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Luostarinen
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Luostarinen
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Luostarinen
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Luostarinen
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (365)
53.8% (753)
-12.4%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
58.9% (90)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (38)
47.4% (78)
-2.7%
On even strength, Paul has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Luostarinen is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Luostarinen shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Luostarinen
Paul
Home
41.5% (207)
54.2% (450)
Away
42.2% (211)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Luostarinen
Paul
P1
38.2%
58.2%
P2
44.9%
50.6%
P3
42.9%
52.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Luostarinen
44.0%▼
47.5%
41.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 10:05 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 3 | 03:15 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 2 | 01:42 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 1 | 08:04 | Neutral | Nick Paul |