Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 51.1% vs Paul 53.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 64.0%
Defensive zone
Veleno 50.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 52.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Veleno
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Veleno
Paul
Last 7: Veleno 4-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
0
Veleno
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Veleno
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Veleno
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (272)
53.2% (327)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
50.0% (32)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Veleno is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (182).
Veleno shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Veleno
Paul
Home
49.6% (123)
54.6% (183)
Away
52.8% (178)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Veleno
Paul
P1
54.8%
56.3%
P2
49.2%
54.8%
P3
52.6%
52.4%
OT
25.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
60.3%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 02:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 02:27 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |