Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Sundqvist shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.3% vs Sundqvist 47.6% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 94.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 73.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 74.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Paul
Sundqvist
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Paul
Sundqvist
Last 6: Paul 5-1 Sundqvist
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
0
Paul
Sundqvist
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Sundqvist
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Sundqvist
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (327)
46.8% (301)
+6.4%
Power Play
61.4% (57)
80.0% (10)
-18.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
43.5% (85)
+6.5%
On power play, Sundqvist has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sundqvist shoots right. Paul is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (113).
Paul shoots left. Sundqvist is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Paul
Sundqvist
Home
54.6% (183)
46.0% (189)
Away
53.6% (233)
47.8% (207)
By Period
Paul
Sundqvist
P1
56.3%
44.7%
P2
54.8%
47.6%
P3
52.4%
48.6%
OT
44.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
59.0%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 01:22 | Defensive | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Nick Paul |