Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Sundqvist shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.9% vs Sundqvist 48.0% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 92.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 63.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 72.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Paul
Sundqvist
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Paul
Sundqvist
Last 6: Paul 5-1 Sundqvist
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
0
Paul
Sundqvist
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Sundqvist
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Sundqvist
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (277)
47.2% (284)
+5.9%
Power Play
58.7% (46)
80.0% (10)
-21.3%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
43.7% (71)
+8.0%
On power play, Sundqvist has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sundqvist shoots right. Paul is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Paul shoots left. Sundqvist is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Paul
Sundqvist
Home
52.9% (155)
45.4% (185)
Away
54.3% (197)
49.4% (180)
By Period
Paul
Sundqvist
P1
55.6%
44.6%
P2
56.7%
48.5%
P3
50.8%
49.5%
Final 5 min
59.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
53.7%
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 01:22 | Defensive | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Nick Paul |