Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Greig 48.8% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 84.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 63.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 80.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Paul
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
2
(13 meetings)
11
2
Paul
Greig
Last 10: Paul 8-2 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
5
1
Paul
Greig
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
0
Paul
Greig
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Greig
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
48.5% (1,133)
+4.0%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
56.8% (74)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
46.5% (172)
+0.2%
On even strength, Paul has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Paul shoots left. Greig is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Home / Away
Paul
Greig
Home
52.7% (2,412)
49.8% (681)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
47.7% (698)
By Period
Paul
Greig
P1
53.9%
46.3%
P2
51.0%
51.2%
P3
52.0%
48.8%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
51.4%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 11:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 07:28 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 17:17 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 11:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 2 | 13:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 01:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |