Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.0% vs Greig 53.8% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greig 55.2%
Defensive zone
Greig 77.0%
Neutral zone
Greig 64.5%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Paul
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Paul
Greig
Last 6: Paul 5-1 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
1
Paul
Greig
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (666)
53.6% (280)
-4.8%
Power Play
53.8% (65)
61.3% (31)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (55)
56.5% (69)
+3.5%
On power play, Greig has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Paul shoots left. Greig is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (166).
Home / Away
Paul
Greig
Home
49.7% (348)
56.2% (185)
Away
50.2% (438)
53.3% (195)
By Period
Paul
Greig
P1
51.0%
52.8%
P2
47.4%
51.6%
P3
51.5%
59.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 11:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |