Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Greig 45.0% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 90.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 78.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 83.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 83.3%
83.3%
16.7%
Paul
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Paul
Greig
Last 6: Paul 5-1 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Greig
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
0
Paul
Greig
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Greig
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
45.2% (414)
+7.9%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
28.6% (14)
+28.7%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
28.6% (21)
+29.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +29.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. Greig is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Paul
Greig
Home
56.0% (466)
46.4% (196)
Away
52.7% (512)
41.9% (253)
By Period
Paul
Greig
P1
57.2%
40.8%
P2
54.9%
46.4%
P3
51.5%
43.9%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 07:28 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 17:17 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 11:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 2 | 13:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |