Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Paul wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.4% vs Aho 52.2% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 89.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 68.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 51.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Paul
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
3
(14 meetings)
11
3
Paul
Aho
Last 10: Paul 8-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
3
Paul
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
7
0
Paul
Aho
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
0
Paul
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (644)
51.6% (819)
+1.4%
Power Play
37.5% (24)
58.4% (173)
-20.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (177)
46.3% (67)
-3.4%
On power play, Aho has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Paul shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Paul
Aho
Home
52.5% (516)
53.9% (568)
Away
47.1% (329)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Paul
Aho
P1
47.6%
55.4%
P2
48.4%
51.2%
P3
54.5%
50.9%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:52 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 04:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 06:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 00:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 14:07 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 04:55 | Neutral | Nick Paul |