Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 54.1%). Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Aho 53.8% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 60.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 63.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Paul
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Paul
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Paul
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
51.2% (785)
+1.9%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
63.8% (213)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
57.9% (57)
+0.1%
On power play, Aho has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Paul
Aho
Home
56.0% (466)
54.9% (548)
Away
52.7% (512)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Paul
Aho
P1
57.2%
52.8%
P2
54.9%
58.9%
P3
51.5%
50.6%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 14:09 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |