Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.4% vs Aho 51.2% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 61.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 75.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 65.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Paul
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Paul
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
0
Paul
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Paul
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (753)
48.5% (778)
+5.3%
Power Play
58.9% (90)
63.4% (191)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (78)
50.8% (65)
-3.4%
On even strength, Paul has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Paul shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Paul
Aho
Home
54.2% (450)
51.3% (530)
Away
53.3% (471)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Paul
Aho
P1
58.2%
50.0%
P2
50.6%
51.3%
P3
52.9%
52.1%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 01:48 | Offensive | Nick Paul |