Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 53.0%). Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Paul wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.4% vs Crosby 52.8% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 75.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 71.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 58.4%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
Paul
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Paul
Crosby
Last 9: Paul 2-7 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
5
Paul
Crosby
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Paul
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Paul
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (753)
52.5% (1,443)
+1.3%
Power Play
58.9% (90)
54.7% (369)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (78)
55.9% (34)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Paul shoots left. Crosby is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,199).
Home / Away
Paul
Crosby
Home
54.2% (450)
53.0% (931)
Away
53.3% (471)
53.0% (915)
By Period
Paul
Crosby
P1
58.2%
50.3%
P2
50.6%
55.4%
P3
52.9%
53.3%
OT
50.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
49.6%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 01:29 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 07:57 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 19:51 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Nick Paul |