Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Crosby 57.8% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 58.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 71.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 58.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Paul
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Paul
Crosby
Last 7: Paul 3-4 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Paul
Crosby
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Paul
Crosby
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
57.8% (1,437)
-4.7%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
60.9% (381)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
50.0% (54)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. Crosby is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,257).
Home / Away
Paul
Crosby
Home
56.0% (466)
59.2% (985)
Away
52.7% (512)
57.2% (887)
By Period
Paul
Crosby
P1
57.2%
57.3%
P2
54.9%
59.5%
P3
51.5%
58.5%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
59.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:10 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |